posted on March 24th, 2008
Adam Nagourney has written a column in the New York Times describing Senator Clinton’s “stay alive scenario” for the remaining 10 state primaries. He argues that huge wins (not just wins) in Pennsylvania and Puerto Rico would bring to the forefront Obama’s perceived difficulties with working class whites and latinos of all stripes. This would cause a massive slide in the general election polls, and could force the Democratic superdelegates to intercede at the convention and broker a nomination for Clinton, even if, as is likely, Clinton is trailing in pledged delegates, states won, and popular votes at the time.
Not even huge wins in all 10 remaining primaries will be enough to give Clinton the lead over Obama. Her only hope is to get the Democratic superdelegates to just give her the nomination.
Currently trailing by 160 unpledged delegates with 566 remaining, Clinton needs to win 64% of the remaining delegates just to go into the convention with a tie. Even if the delegates from Michigan and Florida were seated, Clinton would still need 59% of the remaining delegates. In her widely-touted win in Ohio, Clinton got 53% of the delegates. It is certainly mathematically possible for her to make up the ground, but I can’t describe it as likely. Clinton’s only realistic shot at getting the nomination is by so severely weakening Obama as a candidate in the general election that the party leadership has no choice but to anoint her. Coming into the convention with a deficit of perhaps 75 delegates and an opponent so weakened by the campaign that McCain would trounce him in the general is Clinton’s best-case scenario.
No matter what happens in Pennsylvania, Clinton will continue to fight, and even continue to claim that the momentum is swinging back her way. But according to the conventional wisdom as of March 3rd, she shouldn’t even be in the race anymore. Supporters and pundits alike said Clinton needed to not just win, but win big, in Texas and Ohio. Problem is, she won Ohio by 9 delegates and about 10% of the popular vote, but she didn’t win Texas. She split Texas. Texas has a two-stage primary, with a “regular” election and a caucus. Clinton won the primary by a small margin and lost the caucus by a bigger one. When the dust settled, she received fewer delegates from Texas than Obama did.
Yet she’s still in the race. I don’t see her going anywhere just because her opponent has already won the popular votes in 32 states, and holds insurmountable leads in the national popular vote and pledged delegates. When does it end, Senator Clinton? On the convention floor? After? Running as an independent? Becoming John McCain’s running mate? When will you be satisfied with the amount of damage you have done?
This rant filed under: Political
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